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Seth’s Week 8 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

Seth’s Week 8 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

October 30, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

Week 7 didn’t go so well. Okay, it was a disaster.

My popular Cardinals stack of Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald didn’t do much on Monday night, and I was already playing from behind with poor showings from Willie Snead, Jason Witten, and the Redskins defense.

My FanDuel results so far this season:

Week # Contests Entered Total Entry Fees Total Prize Winnings Net Gain/Loss for Week Finals Tickets Won Cumulative Profit Cumulative Finals Tickets Won
1 5 $32 $327 $295 4 $295 4
2 9 $82 $0 ($82) 0 $213 4
3 5 $45 $29 ($16) 1 $197 5
4 5 $45 $0 ($45) 0 $152 5
5 4 $40 $0 ($40) 0 $112 5
6 4 $35 $70 $35 0 $147 5
7 4 $35 $0 ($35) 0 $112 5

Ranking the Elite

This week Pro-Football-Reference.com released their new fantasy football stats section. It’s an exciting time for fantasy stats nerds, and to celebrate, I used their stats to compile the top 10 FanDuel points seasons since 2006 at the skill positions.

Granted, FanDuel launched in 2009, but it’s still good to look at this year’s best players in full context.

Here’s the top 10 at each position by FanDuel points per game:

Quarterback

Rk Player Year Tm Age G FDPt FDpt/Game
1 Aaron Rodgers 2011 GNB 28 15 403.4 26.9
2 Tom Brady 2015 NWE 38 7 187.4 26.8
3 Michael Vick 2010 PHI 30 12 320.3 26.7
4 Peyton Manning 2013 DEN 37 16 420.0 26.3
5 Tom Brady 2007 NWE 30 16 406.0 25.4
6 Drew Brees 2011 NOR 32 16 403.6 25.2
7 Cam Newton 2011 CAR 22 16 386.8 24.2
8 Tom Brady 2011 NWE 34 16 382.3 23.9
9 Andy Dalton 2015 CIN 28 6 139.7 23.3
10 Drew Brees 2013 NOR 34 16 369.7 23.1

The fact two quarterbacks from this season make the list says quite a bit about quarterback scoring. That’s especially the case when we consider the record-breaking seasons on the list, including Tom Brady 2007, Drew Brees 2011, and Peyton Manning 2013. Brady is on pace to break the single-season passing yardage record following Thursday’s game, and he’s also on an impressive 46/2 TD/INT pace. And who would have thought Andy Dalton would be on a list like this one entering the season?

Running Backs

Rk Player Year Tm Age G FDPt FDpt/Game
1 LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 SDG 27 16 455.1 28.4
2 Devonta Freeman 2015 ATL 23 7 170.1 24.3
3 Steven Jackson 2006 STL 23 16 374.4 23.4
4 Chris Johnson 2009 TEN 24 16 373.9 23.4
5 Jamaal Charles 2013 KAN 27 15 343.0 22.9
6 Arian Foster 2010 HOU 24 16 363.0 22.7
7 Larry Johnson 2006 KAN 27 16 354.4 22.2
8 Brian Westbrook 2007 PHI 28 15 327.4 21.8
9 Arian Foster 2011 HOU 25 13 282.6 21.7
10 Ray Rice 2011 BAL 24 16 338.8 21.2

The golden age of the fantasy running backs has long since past, but Devonta Freeman is setting back the clock thus far. The surprise sleeper still stands well behind LT’s 28.4 points per game from 2006, and he also stands six points ahead of this year’s second best back, Chris Ivory. He’s scored 10 touchdowns, but failed to find the end zone last week.

Wide Receivers

Rk Player Year Tm Age G FDPt FDpt/Game
1 Randy Moss 2007 NWE 30 16 336.3 21.0
2 Odell Beckham Jr. 2014 NYG 22 12 249.5 20.8
3 Antonio Brown 2014 PIT 26 16 322.4 20.2
4 DeAndre Hopkins 2015 HOU 23 7 138.6 19.8
5 Julio Jones 2015 ATL 26 7 138.0 19.7
6 Calvin Johnson 2011 DET 26 16 313.2 19.6
7 Josh Gordon 2013 CLE 22 14 270.9 19.4
8 Calvin Johnson 2013 DET 28 14 261.2 18.7
9 Anquan Boldin 2008 ARI 28 12 221.0 18.4
10 Demaryius Thomas 2014 DEN 27 16 285.4 17.8

It’s not shocking to see DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones make this list with their early performances. Hopkins has seen at least 11 targets in every game this season, and he’s on pace for a staggering 233 targets. That means he’s been targeted on more than 71% of Houston’s pass attempts. As for Jones, he’s slowed considerably after the first three games of the season. He’s failed to produce a 100 yard performance over his last four contests, and only has one receiving touchdown over that time. For what it’s worth, Julian Edelman’s 2015 season ranks 13th on the list, while Larry Fitzgerald ranks 18th.

Tight End

Rk Player Year Tm Age G FDPt FDpt/Game
1 Rob Gronkowski 2015 NWE 26 7 126.6 18.1
2 Rob Gronkowski 2011 NWE 22 16 285.9 17.9
3 Jimmy Graham 2013 NOR 27 16 260.5 16.3
4 Jimmy Graham 2011 NOR 25 16 246.5 15.4
5 Rob Gronkowski 2014 NWE 25 15 225.4 15.0
6 Tyler Eifert 2015 CIN 25 6 84.2 14.0
7 Gary Barnidge 2015 CLE 30 7 97.9 14.0
8 Dallas Clark 2009 IND 30 16 221.7 13.9
9 Tony Gonzalez 2008 KAN 32 16 213.8 13.4
10 Vernon Davis 2009 SFO 25 16 213.5 13.3

This is Gronk’s third season on the list, and his best so far. New England’s tight end is on pace for 91 catches, 1,477 yards, and 16 touchdowns. The receptions and yardage would edge out what he produced in 2011, but he scored 17 times in that breakout season. Currently, Tyler Eifert and Gary Barnidge also rank in the top six, with Eifert on pace for 16 touchdowns and Barnidge on pace for 1,175 receiving yards and 11 scores. Drafted in 2008, the 30-year-old Barnidge had a total of 603 receiving yards and three scores over his entire career coming into this season. The early strength at tight end has given fantasy owners plenty of weekly options.

My Week 8 Strategy

I apparently didn’t go safe enough last week, and failed to predict the Rams’ 25 point performance. Not splurging on defense really did me in, so I’m hoping not to make that mistake again this week.

(OK, “splurging” may be a bit of an exaggeration, given the Rams only cost $100 more than the defense I ended up using. But I did set myself a hard spending cap, rather than being open to using any defense.)

To review my normal strategy:

Start with Vegas over/under linesEvaluate each team’s recent fantasy points allowed vs. each positionEvaluate salaries and contest format

The highest Vegas-implied point totals this week include:

Team Vegas-Implied Points
Atlanta 28.0
Carolina 27.0
Baltimore 26.8
New Orleans 26.2
Arizona 25.8

The lowest Vegas-implied point totals include:

Team Vegas-Implied Points
San Francisco 15.8
Dallas 18.0
Tennessee 19.8
Indianapolis 20.0
Cleveland 20.2

The Result: My Lineup for Week 8

Here’s my lineup for Week 8:

Seth's FanDuel Week 8 Lineup

Ryan Fitzpatrick remains at an affordable salary, as the Jets take on the league’s seventh worst fantasy defense vs. QBs. Fitz Magic has been a reliable fantasy quarterback this season, scoring at least 14 points in every game, and his two best games have come over the last two weeks.I’m going slightly cheaper at running back, but still two solid plays. Chris Johnson is coming off his second best game of the year, and faces Cleveland’s horrible rush defense. The Browns are second worst in running back fantasy points allowed, and last in rushing yards allowed by a large margin. In addition, Arizona ranks fifth this week in Vegas-implied points. Justin Forsett faces the only fantasy defense that’s been worse vs. the rush than Cleveland. San Diego has allowed the second most rushing yards in the NFL, and have also allowed 10 scores to running backs.Brandon Marshall is coming off his worst game of the year, but before facing New England, he was one of football’s most consistent players this season. Marshall scored at least 15 fantasy points in his first five games, and he could be in for another big game with Eric Decker questionable to play. Mike Evans should be a very popular pick this week after his  best game of the season, and with Vincent Jackson doubtful for Sunday. Atlanta has done well vs. wideouts this season, allowing the third fewest points, but that shouldn’t stop Evans from hogging targets. Steve Smith remains a value for the amount of attention he’s seen in Baltimore’s offense, averaging 11 targets per game.Antonio Gates is highly questionable again with a sprained MCL, making Ladarius Green a value play. Green saw a season-high nine targets last week, and has scored in three of his four starts this season. The Ravens have fared very well vs. tight ends this season, tied for second best, but the potential for the price is too good to pass up.The Rams defense is a no-brainer if you’re looking to spend. The 49ers are coming off a 3-point performance in their last game (vs. Seattle), have the lowest Vegas-implied points total, and will be without starting running back Carlos Hyde.With my leftover salary, I felt Brandon McManus was the best I could do at kicker. He’s second in fantasy points per game, and has scored double-digit fantasy points in three consecutive games.

That’s my lineup for Week 8. Don’t forget to compete against me in this week’s TRFC contest!

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