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Season Record: 22-24
- Consensus WNBA Odds
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Tuesday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Lynx (+215) at New York Liberty (-6) | O/U 165 (-112/-108)
Sabs has gone over this number in eight of her last nine games and eight straight prior to her most recent performance in a trap game against the Dream. During that eight-game streak, Ionescu averaged 22.6 points, 8.25 assists, and 5.0 rebounds for a 35.85 PRA average.
Ionescu averages 29.6 PRA on the season and posted a 37 PRA (23/10/4) last time against the Lynx in the Commissioner’s Cup Final just one week ago. In 10 home games this season, Ionescu is averaging 19.7 points, 6.7 assists, and 3.7 rebounds for a 30.1 home PRA average and that even includes the 18 (10/4/4) clunker she threw up against the Dream in her first game failing to his this 29.5 number since June 6 against those same Dream. That game was a Commissioner’s Cup game so Ionescu remains 6-1 in her last seven regular season games and 8-3 in her last 11 games overall. That number improves to 8-1 against teams other than the Dream.
Grab this prop at 29.5 before it gets juiced so low they pump the line up to 30.5 which is a number she has caught the hook on during her recent stretch. I still like her to go over 30.5 but why lay one more point when you don’t have to?
WNBA Pick: Sabrina Ionescu Over 29.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-130)
Indiana Fever (+440) at Las Vegas Aces (-11) | O/U 166.5 (-110/-110)
The return of Chelsea Gray and her offensive facilitation has freed Young up to be the aggressive scorer she thrives as. That includes from distance as well. In the four games since Gray’s return, Young has eight three-pointers and that includes a goose egg against the Sun, who hand out a lot of goose eggs and their defense doesn’t represent real life, so we can let that one slide and toss it. In the other three games, Young has drained 8-of-17 shots (47.1%) from deep and hit this number in two straight. Young also made 3-of-9 three balls when these teams last met on May 25 just four games into the season. Indiana’s defense still sits at the bottom of the W defensively so there is no reason to think Young is going to slow down against the Fever’s patented Matador Defense. The Chelsea Gray Effects has not been fully juiced out of this prop, so let’s take what’s left.
WNBA Picks: Jackie Young Over 2.5 Three Pointers (+115)
Extreme Value Pick: Lynx Moneyline (+215)
This number, over 2:1 in terms of return, is bananas to get on a team that is 2-0 SU in this matchup. Admittedly, both wins came either on Minnesota’s home court of the Target Center or a neutral site. This game will be at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, but for what it’s worth, Minnesota’s Commissioner’s Cup victory came at nearby UBS Arena (home of the Islanders) and was supposed to also be at Barclays but there was a scheduling conflict with the NBA Draft in Brooklyn. The point is, location-wise, it was technically neutral but it was in nearby Elmont, New York, and was still a hometown crowd. Minnesota’s defense is top notch and defense simultaneously travels and never takes the night off so with Vegas offering +215, there is simply too much value in Minnesota SU that not at least sprinkling something on it feels negligent. It feels even more so since both times the Lynx have beaten New York this season, the win has returned similar but shorter odds than they are getting tonight.
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Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.
