I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Bears vs. Buccaneers.
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NFL Betting Primer: Bears vs. Buccaneers
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Spread Line: TB -2.5
Although Chicago lost handily in Week 1, the game was closer in the first half before a few big plays and a pick-six buried the Chicago Bears in the second half. As did Green Bay going a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone. The Bears had more yards in the 1st half down 10-6. I think there might be some value in backing Chicago at +3.0 underdogs after they initially opened as 1.5-point favorites playing at Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay had everything work their way to beat the Vikings in Week 1. Their defense allowed 369 total yards and 5.9 yards per play (tied for second highest in Week 2). They recovered two lost fumbles and one interception that killed scoring opportunities for Minnesota. The Vikings turned the ball over twice inside Buccaneers’ territory. And Tampa Bay got lucky with a few big plays versus a blitz-heavy defense. And they still only averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Overall, they netted the third-worst yards per play (3.6) in Week 1. The Bears are not a blitz-heavy defense.
The Buccaneers are simply getting too much credit for their victory over the Vikings. Give me the Bears in a field goal game. Don’t even hate the ML bet (+122 FanDuel Sportsbook). Anytime you get plus odds versus Baker Mayfield, you take it.
On the Bears offense as a whole, they were relying way too heavily on just RB targets and rushes by Justin Fields. Still, the Bears QB attempted 37 passes and completed 24 passes for 216 passing yards. 37 attempts was more than any game he had ALL last season.
The fact that the passing volume -accompanied by a bad defense – will lead to much better days for Chicago’s No. 1 WR, D.J. Moore. Pound the over 3.5 receptions at plus-money odds.
The Buccaneers allowed 242 receiving yards to WRs in Week 1. Buccaneers are a heavy blitzing team; more scrambles are coming for Justin Fields. And big plays in the passing game when Tampa Bay sells out on a full-out blitz.
- My picks: Bears +2.5 (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- My props: D.J. Moore OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook), D.J. Moore OVER 3.5 receptions (+114 DraftKings Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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