College Football Rankings 2020: Big Ten, Pac-12, Mountain West, MAC Begin Play

College Football Rankings 2020: Big Ten, Pac-12, Mountain West, MAC Begin Play

October 20, 2020 – by Jason Lisk

Iowa and USC are both back soon (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

Nearly two months after other conferences began play in 2020, the Big Ten, Pac-12, Mountain West, and MAC will make their returns over the next few weeks. These conferences will now be eligible for the bowl games and the College Football Playoff.

As a result, for the first time, we’ve created “preseason” rankings for a bunch of teams about to start play, even though the college football season has been underway for a while.

In this post, you can also see where we would slot the teams from these conferences in with the preseason rankings for other schools that have already been playing, by looking at our updated TR Top 25.

If you’d like to learn about the methodology behind our mostly data-driven preseason team ratings, make sure your read our post on How We Make College Football Preseason Rankings.

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The Updated 2020 TeamRankings College Football Top 25

Jump to rankings for all Big Ten, MAC, Mountain West and Pac-12 teams

Back in August we published our original 2020 Top 25 preseason college football rankings, which considered the 77 teams that were planning to play a 2020 fall season at the time. That list excluded the teams from the conferences that had announced they would not play in the fall.

Now that other schools are going to play and we’ve compiled preseason ratings for all of them, you may be curious about where we would have slotted all teams into our preseason rankings before any team played a game.

Here is what our preseason Top 25 would have looked like if all college football teams had started at the same time this year. Yes, Ohio State would have been above Clemson and Alabama.

TR Rank	Team	2020 Rating	LAST YEAR	PROGRAM	RETURNING	LUCK	MARKET
1	Ohio State	30.6	28.9	6.1	-1.1	-3.4	0.0
2	Clemson	29.3	23.3	5.8	2.5	-1.3	-1.0
3	Alabama	27.1	21.5	6.7	-3.3	-0.8	3.0
4	Georgia	21.8	16.6	2.9	-2.1	-0.5	5.0
5	Oklahoma	19.9	13.2	4.5	-3.5	1.8	4.0
6	Wisconsin	19.5	17.8	4.1	4.5	-1.0	-6.0
7	Louisiana State	18.8	24.4	3.3	-9.8	-2.2	3.0
8	Penn State	18.8	16.5	4.6	2.0	-1.3	-3.0
9	Notre Dame	17.8	14.6	2.7	-2.3	-0.3	3.0
10	Texas A&M	16.8	8.8	2.0	3.5	0.5	2.0
11	Oregon	16.6	14.9	0.8	0.8	-2.9	3.0
12	Florida	16.4	14.9	1.6	-0.3	-0.8	1.0
13	Auburn	15.6	15.6	4.0	2.1	-1.2	-5.0
14	USC	15.4	6.0	3.1	6.0	2.3	-2.0
15	Texas	15.1	9.4	1.6	2.0	0.1	2.0
16	Michigan	13.7	14.0	4.8	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0
17	Central Florida	13.5	10.3	1.9	3.5	-0.2	-2.0
18	Oklahoma State	13.4	6.0	3.1	5.5	0.9	-2.0
19	Boise State	11.6	4.2	1.8	1.3	0.4	4.0
20	Minnesota	11.2	9.2	1.1	-0.6	0.5	1.0
21	North Carolina	10.2	6.7	0.4	4.6	-1.5	0.0
22	Iowa State	9.8	7.2	1.0	-0.1	0.7	1.0
23	Baylor	9.1	10.8	0.0	-1.9	-1.8	2.0
24	Kentucky	8.6	4.9	0.3	2.8	-0.3	1.0
25	Washington	8.4	9.4	4.8	-3.4	-0.5	-2.0

While we encourage you to read our full preseason rankings methodology, here’s a quick reminder of the factors we currently use in our preseason ratings:

LAST YEAR: How good a team was last yearPROGRAM: How consistently good a team has been in recent history (excluding last year)RETURN: A measure of how much performance in key stat areas last year came from players returning this yearLUCK: A measure of how likely a team is to improve in higher-variance metrics like turnoversMARKET: An adjustment made if our initial projection is far off the AP Poll and/or betting market

Updated College Football Preseason Rankings Highlights

Ohio State would have been our preseason No. 1, and this was largely driven by their power rating from last season.USC has both the largest returning starter adjustment and luck adjustment, which would have had them at No. 14 in our preseason rankings, and is why the Trojans are expected to compete for the Pac-12 title coming off a disappointing 8-5 season in 2019.Wisconsin was our biggest downward market adjustment, by 6 points, meaning that our raw ratings were actually six points higher but we made that adjustment to move toward the betting markets. Still, Wisconsin comes in at No. 6 with that adjustment.

Updated 2020 Full TeamRankings College Football Rankings (Now Including Big Ten, MAC, Mountain West, and Pac-12)

Finally, here are our initial “preseason” 2020 college football ratings for every team. All the teams from the conferences starting play late are now included.

Keep in mind that in the table below, we’re showing the preseason ratings for some teams that have already played several games. So, some numbers may be surprising for teams that have played much better or much worse than expected so far (e.g., Oklahoma and LSU are no longer 5th and 7th in our current rankings).

But the point here is to compare apples to apples, and have a record of our preseason rating for every team, before any of them played a game this year.

If you want to see where the new teams slot compared to all other FBS teams now, and get the most current predictive ratings, you can check out our NCAA College Football Predictive Rankings and Ratings page.

TR Rank	Team	2020 Rating	LAST YEAR	PROGRAM	RETURNING	LUCK	MARKET
1	Ohio State	30.6	28.9	6.1	-1.1	-3.4	0.0
2	Clemson	29.3	23.3	5.8	2.5	-1.3	-1.0
3	Alabama	27.1	21.5	6.7	-3.3	-0.8	3.0
4	Georgia	21.8	16.6	2.9	-2.1	-0.5	5.0
5	Oklahoma	19.9	13.2	4.5	-3.5	1.8	4.0
6	Wisconsin	19.5	17.8	4.1	4.5	-1.0	-6.0
7	Louisiana State	18.8	24.4	3.3	-9.8	-2.2	3.0
8	Penn State	18.8	16.5	4.6	2.0	-1.3	-3.0
9	Notre Dame	17.8	14.6	2.7	-2.3	-0.3	3.0
10	Texas A&M	16.8	8.8	2.0	3.5	0.5	2.0
11	Oregon	16.6	14.9	0.8	0.8	-2.9	3.0
12	Florida	16.4	14.9	1.6	-0.3	-0.8	1.0
13	Auburn	15.6	15.6	4.0	2.1	-1.2	-5.0
14	USC	15.4	6.0	3.1	6.0	2.3	-2.0
15	Texas	15.1	9.4	1.6	2.0	0.1	2.0
16	Michigan	13.7	14.0	4.8	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0
17	Central Florida	13.5	10.3	1.9	3.5	-0.2	-2.0
18	Oklahoma State	13.4	6.0	3.1	5.5	0.9	-2.0
19	Boise State	11.6	4.2	1.8	1.3	0.4	4.0
20	Minnesota	11.2	9.2	1.1	-0.6	0.5	1.0
21	North Carolina	10.2	6.7	0.4	4.6	-1.5	0.0
22	Iowa State	9.8	7.2	1.0	-0.1	0.7	1.0
23	Baylor	9.1	10.8	0.0	-1.9	-1.8	2.0
24	Kentucky	8.6	4.9	0.3	2.8	-0.3	1.0
25	Washington	8.4	9.4	4.8	-3.4	-0.5	-2.0
26	Tennessee	8.3	3.4	0.5	2.0	1.4	1.0
27	Virginia Tech	8.2	2.1	2.6	1.6	-0.1	2.0
28	Appalachian State	7.9	7.2	0.8	3.7	-0.7	-3.0
29	Miami	7.7	1.8	3.0	-3.9	-0.3	7.0
30	Memphis	7.2	9.4	1.6	-0.5	0.8	-4.0
31	Texas Christian	7.0	4.8	2.0	0.6	0.7	-1.0
32	Nebraska	7.0	2.9	0.5	-0.4	1.0	3.0
33	Cincinnati	6.8	6.9	-2.0	1.8	-1.0	1.0
34	Louisville	6.5	1.3	2.6	3.4	0.2	-1.0
35	Indiana	6.2	5.3	0.6	2.7	0.5	-3.0
36	Navy	6.1	8.7	0.6	-1.2	-2.0	0.0
37	Iowa	5.9	11.2	2.5	0.2	-1.0	-7.0
38	Utah	5.8	12.5	1.8	-5.7	-1.8	-1.0
39	California	5.8	1.2	0.3	1.7	-0.4	3.0
40	Kansas State	5.7	6.1	1.8	0.3	1.5	-4.0
41	Wake Forest	5.4	1.0	0.9	-2.4	-1.1	7.0
42	Florida State	4.9	1.1	2.5	0.5	0.8	0.0
43	Mississippi	4.8	3.2	0.4	1.5	0.7	-1.0
44	Arizona St	4.6	2.3	0.2	-1.3	-0.6	4.0
45	Air Force	4.0	6.2	-0.4	0.7	-0.4	-2.0
46	Stanford	3.7	-2.0	2.7	2.3	0.7	0.0
47	Virginia	3.6	4.2	-1.0	-3.8	0.3	4.0
48	Houston	3.4	-1.2	1.0	5.1	1.4	-3.0
49	South Carolina	3.3	3.4	0.1	-1.2	0.0	1.0
50	Pittsburgh	2.7	-0.9	1.1	0.2	0.3	2.0
51	UL Lafayette	2.6	6.7	-3.2	1.8	-1.8	-1.0
52	Mississippi State	2.6	3.2	1.6	-2.9	-0.3	1.0
53	West Virginia	2.2	-3.4	1.9	1.5	0.2	2.0
54	UCLA	2.1	-2.7	0.5	2.9	1.4	0.0
55	Tulane	1.8	3.5	-1.4	-2.6	0.3	2.0
56	Tulsa	1.7	-0.9	-0.1	3.1	-0.3	0.0
57	Southern Methodist	1.7	4.5	-1.4	-2.1	-0.4	1.0
58	Texas Tech	1.4	0.1	0.8	-0.5	-0.1	1.0
59	Boston College	1.2	-2.1	0.3	1.4	0.7	1.0
60	Missouri	1.0	3.7	0.7	-1.3	-0.2	-2.0
61	Duke	0.9	-1.7	0.6	-0.6	0.6	2.0
62	Northwestern	0.8	-2.7	2.0	5.7	0.8	-5.0
63	Michigan St	-0.2	3.9	1.3	-4.2	-0.1	-1.0
64	Purdue	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	3.4	0.2	-3.0
65	UAB	-0.5	-7.4	-2.4	4.3	0.0	5.0
66	Brigham Young	-0.7	-0.7	0.0	0.3	-0.3	0.0
67	Buffalo	-0.7	-1.9	-2.9	4.9	-1.8	1.0
68	Wash State	-0.8	4.2	2.4	-8.5	1.0	0.0
69	Illinois	-1.1	-0.4	-2.3	1.2	-1.6	2.0
70	San Diego St	-1.6	-1.6	1.0	1.9	-3.9	1.0
71	Ohio	-1.9	-3.2	-0.1	2.1	0.4	-1.0
72	NC State	-1.9	-7.7	1.8	2.5	0.4	1.0
73	Syracuse	-2.8	-3.0	-0.6	-3.3	1.0	3.0
74	Western Kentucky	-3.0	-2.2	-0.2	-1.0	0.4	0.0
75	Georgia Southern	-3.6	-3.7	-2.2	1.5	0.8	0.0
76	Army	-3.8	-3.8	0.1	-0.5	0.3	0.0
77	Georgia Tech	-4.0	-9.4	1.2	5.5	-0.2	-1.0
78	Southern Miss	-4.2	-4.2	-1.5	0.6	0.9	0.0
79	Maryland	-4.3	-4.0	-0.5	-0.3	0.5	0.0
80	Temple	-4.6	-2.6	0.6	-0.6	-1.0	-1.0
81	South Florida	-4.6	-6.9	1.0	2.5	-1.3	0.0
82	Arkansas	-4.7	-7.4	-0.3	-0.5	1.3	2.0
83	Colorado St	-5.2	-8.4	-0.5	2.4	3.3	-2.0
84	Arizona	-5.2	-4.9	-0.6	-0.1	1.4	-1.0
85	Wyoming	-5.3	-1.3	-0.3	0.0	-1.6	-2.0
86	Oregon St	-5.5	0.5	-1.7	-2.3	-2.1	0.0
87	Colorado	-6.1	-2.5	1.5	-2.1	0.0	-3.0
88	Kansas	-6.2	-7.3	-3.2	-1.4	0.6	5.0
89	Miami (OH)	-6.2	-6.8	-1.6	2.1	0.1	0.0
90	Florida Atlantic	-6.7	5.5	-2.0	-10.3	-3.9	4.0
91	Toledo	-6.9	-11.4	0.8	2.0	0.7	1.0
92	W Michigan	-6.9	-3.1	1.1	-5.0	-0.9	1.0
93	Ball State	-7.1	-4.1	-4.0	3.4	-0.4	-2.0
94	Troy	-7.2	-8.0	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.0
95	Rutgers	-7.9	-13.4	-2.6	2.5	1.5	4.0
96	Louisiana Tech	-8.1	-2.7	-0.3	-2.6	-2.5	0.0
97	Central Mich	-8.3	-6.6	-1.9	1.3	2.9	-4.0
98	Coastal Carolina	-8.4	-8.6	-3.8	0.6	0.4	3.0
99	Marshall	-8.9	-4.2	-2.3	-1.9	-0.4	0.0
100	Utah State	-9.0	-4.8	-0.6	-3.8	0.2	0.0
101	Rice	-9.0	-10.0	-4.8	4.9	1.0	0.0
102	Georgia St.	-9.4	-8.9	-3.4	2.4	0.4	0.0
103	Liberty	-9.5	-6.5	-1.6	-5.9	-0.5	5.0
104	East Carolina	-9.9	-10.3	-3.3	3.1	0.6	0.0
105	Arkansas St.	-9.9	-6.0	-0.7	-3.6	0.3	0.0
106	Charlotte	-9.9	-8.5	-4.5	3.1	0.0	0.0
107	Fresno St	-10.2	-5.4	-1.1	-1.2	0.6	-3.0
108	Middle Tennessee	-11.1	-6.5	-1.6	0.6	-0.6	-3.0
109	UL Monroe	-11.3	-8.4	-3.8	0.2	0.8	0.0
110	North Texas	-11.4	-9.0	-2.3	-1.1	0.9	0.0
111	Vanderbilt	-12.0	-8.3	-0.1	-0.5	-0.1	-3.0
112	N Illinois	-12.1	-10.1	-0.6	-3.0	0.8	1.0
113	Hawaii	-12.5	-2.5	-3.2	-9.3	1.5	1.0
114	Kent State	-13.2	-7.0	-3.8	-1.6	0.1	-1.0
115	Texas-San Antonio	-13.8	-15.5	-2.1	2.3	1.5	0.0
116	Nevada	-14.4	-13.3	-2.2	1.6	0.4	-1.0
117	South Alabama	-14.6	-12.9	-3.2	-0.1	1.5	0.0
118	New Mexico	-14.6	-15.6	-2.0	1.4	1.7	0.0
119	Florida International	-14.6	-9.0	-3.1	-3.4	0.9	0.0
120	San Jose St	-14.8	-7.4	-4.2	-0.2	-1.0	-2.0
121	UNLV	-16.0	-12.5	-2.5	1.6	0.4	-3.0
122	E Michigan	-17.2	-8.2	-1.2	-5.6	-0.2	-2.0
123	Texas State	-21.8	-14.1	-6.0	-2.3	0.6	0.0
124	Akron	-26.4	-27.6	-2.5	2.6	0.0	1.0
125	Bowling Grn	-27.1	-22.6	-3.8	-1.2	0.5	0.0
126	Texas El Paso	-29.8	-20.9	-5.3	-4.9	1.3	0.0
127	U Mass	-35.8	-33.0	-2.9	-0.7	0.9	0.0

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