Preseason Bracketology: 2018 NCAA Tournament Bracket
November 7, 2017 – by David Hess
The NCAA basketball season tips off in just 3 days, and we can’t wait to get started. To whet your appetite for the upcoming season, here are our projected #1 seeds in the 2018 NCAA tournament:
Arizona (32% chance)Duke (30% chance)Wichita State (31% chance)Michigan State (28% chance)
The four teams above probably aren’t a big shock. They’re the top four teams in our preseason ratings. However, the order is different: Duke is our preseason #1 team, while Arizona is #2.
Why do we have Arizona and Wichita State with a better chance at a #1 seed than Duke? Mainly because the Pac-12 and AAC are weaker than the ACC. Let’s look at Arizona vs. Duke in more detail to illustrate why this makes a difference.
Duke and Arizona have almost identical preseason ratings. Due to their easier conference, however, Arizona is less likely to stumble during league play. If both teams play at the same level this season, Arizona’s resume is going to look cleaner. They’ll have fewer losses, and will be more likely to nab a regular season title, conference tournament title, or both.
Here are highlights of our season projections for both teams. (Click the team name for more details.)
Arizona:
25-4 overall15-3 Pac-1261% chance of winning the Pac-12 regular season45% chance of winning the Pac-12 tournament33% chance of winning the regular season and tournament titles
Duke:
24-5 overall14-4 ACC38% chance of winning the Pac-12 regular season29% chance of winning the Pac-12 tournament16% chance of winning the regular season and tournament titles
[Technical notes … 1) The overall record doesn’t include any games in early season tournaments where the opponent isn’t known yet. 2) The chance of winning both the regular season and tournament titles in a conference is higher the value you get by simply multiplying the chance of each happening, because the two events aren’t independent. Winning the regular season title results in an easier path during the tournament, plus it’s a signal that the team performed well, and is probably nearer to the top end of our projected rating range for them than the bottom.]
The selection committee will likely think the ACC is a better conference. But they’ll still probably give Arizona the top spot over Duke if Arizona sweeps the regular season and tournament titles, and Duke doesn’t … especially if Arizona has a couple fewer losses. (See: Villanova as the overall #1 seed for the 2017 tournament.)
Of course, we have more than just #1 seeds. On to the bracket!
Preseason Bracketology: 2018 Projected NCAA Tournament Bracket
(click to enlarge)
Projected 2018 NCAA Tournament bracket.
[Note: We’re not worried about following the NCAA’s bracketing rules here. We know that, for example, Florida shouldn’t potentially play Arkansas in the second round. Our goal here is to show expected seed lines for each team, and give an idea of the rough quality of opponent they might face in each round. Trying to predict actual bracket matchups at this point is silly.]
For details on how this bracket was created, see our original Madness Strikes November blog post. That post goes into more detail, but the basic idea is:
Simulate the regular seasonSeed & play out conference tournamentsSimulate NCAA tournament selection and seeding
For that last step, we use a model trained on historical NCAA Selection Committee decisions. Put another way, this model uses relevant historical data not to predict how the NCAA Selection Committee should select and seed teams, but rather to predict how it actually will select and seed teams. Sometimes the Committee emphasizes things that aren’t necessarily tied to team quality, and our model takes that into account.
Preseason Bracketology 2018: Odds For All 351 Teams
Our selection & seeding model doesn’t directly produce the single bracket you see above. Its output is actually a set of odds describing each team’s chance to make the NCAA tournament, and to earn each specific seed (among other info). The bracket is created at the end, based on those odds.
Here are our official 2018 NCAA Tournament preseason projected bracketology odds for every team. Bookmark this page for later, so you can come back and congratulate us on getting every single team correct. 😉
For a sortable table of similar odds that we update daily, check out our NCAA Bracketology detail page.
And, even cooler, to see projected round by round NCAA Tournament advancement odds based on our simulated brackets, check out our NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions.
| TR Bracket Seed | Team | Bid | Auto | At Large | Avg Seed If In | 1-4 Seed | 1 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | 96% | 45% | 52% | 2.9 | 77% | 32% |
| 1 | Wichita St | 96% | 44% | 53% | 3 | 76% | 31% |
| 1 | Duke | 95% | 29% | 66% | 3 | 75% | 30% |
| 1 | Michigan St | 90% | 30% | 59% | 3.3 | 65% | 28% |
| 2 | Villanova | 89% | 30% | 59% | 3.8 | 60% | 19% |
| 2 | Kentucky | 87% | 23% | 65% | 4 | 56% | 19% |
| 2 | Florida | 85% | 24% | 60% | 3.9 | 55% | 18% |
| 2 | Purdue | 80% | 19% | 61% | 4.2 | 48% | 16% |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 86% | 28% | 58% | 4.4 | 50% | 14% |
| 3 | Kansas | 82% | 22% | 60% | 4.2 | 51% | 16% |
| 3 | N Carolina | 81% | 15% | 66% | 4.5 | 45% | 11% |
| 3 | W Virginia | 73% | 20% | 52% | 4.4 | 40% | 11% |
| 4 | St Marys | 92% | 42% | 50% | 5.1 | 45% | 8% |
| 4 | Louisville | 81% | 13% | 68% | 4.7 | 44% | 12% |
| 4 | USC | 80% | 18% | 62% | 5 | 40% | 9% |
| 4 | Virginia | 76% | 12% | 65% | 5 | 37% | 8% |
| 5 | Gonzaga | 87% | 40% | 47% | 5.3 | 39% | 11% |
| 5 | Xavier | 74% | 16% | 58% | 5.2 | 34% | 8% |
| 5 | Baylor | 64% | 13% | 51% | 5.3 | 29% | 6% |
| 5 | TX Christian | 61% | 11% | 50% | 5.3 | 27% | 6% |
| 6 | Miami (FL) | 70% | 10% | 60% | 5.6 | 28% | 4% |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 68% | 10% | 58% | 5.5 | 28% | 5% |
| 6 | Seton Hall | 68% | 14% | 55% | 5.6 | 29% | 6% |
| 6 | Minnesota | 62% | 11% | 51% | 5.2 | 28% | 7% |
| 7 | Alabama | 67% | 10% | 57% | 5.8 | 26% | 5% |
| 7 | Providence | 64% | 13% | 52% | 5.7 | 26% | 5% |
| 7 | Oregon | 63% | 13% | 50% | 5.8 | 24% | 5% |
| 7 | Northwestern | 50% | 7% | 43% | 6.1 | 17% | 3% |
| 8 | UCLA | 66% | 12% | 54% | 6.1 | 24% | 4% |
| 8 | Texas | 48% | 8% | 40% | 6.2 | 15% | 2% |
| 8 | Wisconsin | 48% | 7% | 41% | 6.3 | 15% | 3% |
| 8 | Iowa | 39% | 6% | 33% | 6.3 | 11% | 2% |
| 9 | Creighton | 50% | 8% | 42% | 6.3 | 16% | 3% |
| 9 | Butler | 46% | 8% | 38% | 6.4 | 14% | 2% |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 46% | 7% | 39% | 6.6 | 13% | 2% |
| 9 | Michigan | 42% | 6% | 36% | 6.5 | 12% | 2% |
| 10 | S Methodist | 56% | 10% | 46% | 6.7 | 15% | 2% |
| 10 | Vanderbilt | 46% | 6% | 39% | 6.6 | 13% | 2% |
| 10 | Arkansas | 44% | 6% | 38% | 6.7 | 12% | 2% |
| 10 | Missouri | 40% | 5% | 34% | 6.9 | 10% | 1% |
| 11 | Rhode Island | 76% | 33% | 44% | 6.7 | 22% | 3% |
| 11 | San Diego St | 55% | 24% | 30% | 8.8 | 5% | 0% |
| 11 | Maryland | 49% | 5% | 44% | 6.7 | 13% | 2% |
| 11 | Mississippi | 43% | 5% | 38% | 6.9 | 11% | 1% |
| 11 | Indiana | 39% | 5% | 34% | 7 | 9% | 1% |
| 11 | Clemson | 38% | 3% | 35% | 7.5 | 7% | 0% |
| 12 | Bucknell | 74% | 64% | 11% | 10.1 | 3% | 0% |
| 12 | LA Tech | 52% | 33% | 18% | 10.4 | 2% | 0% |
| 12 | Col Charlestn | 51% | 31% | 20% | 10.1 | 2% | 0% |
| 12 | Loyola-Chi | 42% | 25% | 16% | 10.6 | 1% | 0% |
| 13 | Belmont | 53% | 44% | 9% | 11.3 | 1% | 0% |
| 13 | N Mex State | 51% | 41% | 10% | 11.4 | 1% | 0% |
| 13 | Princeton | 36% | 25% | 11% | 11.5 | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | LA Lafayette | 35% | 23% | 12% | 11.4 | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | Vermont | 59% | 54% | 5% | 11.8 | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | Oakland | 46% | 37% | 8% | 11.6 | 1% | 0% |
| 14 | Iona | 46% | 36% | 11% | 11.8 | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | E Tenn St | 30% | 23% | 7% | 12 | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | Fla Gulf Cst | 50% | 48% | 2% | 13 | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | NC-Asheville | 44% | 41% | 2% | 13.2 | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | S Dakota St | 28% | 24% | 4% | 12.9 | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | Ohio | 21% | 16% | 5% | 12.4 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | TX Southern | 39% | 39% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | UC Irvine | 35% | 33% | 2% | 14 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | NC Central | 35% | 35% | 0% | 15.5 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | Ste F Austin | 31% | 30% | 1% | 14.5 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | Mt St Marys | 20% | 20% | 0% | 15.6 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | Montana | 19% | 18% | 0% | 14.4 | 0% | 0% |
| Boise State | 47% | 19% | 28% | 9.2 | 4% | 0% | |
| VCU | 44% | 18% | 26% | 8.2 | 6% | 1% | |
| BYU | 41% | 10% | 31% | 9.2 | 3% | 0% | |
| Lipscomb | 41% | 39% | 2% | 13.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| St Bonavent | 40% | 13% | 27% | 9.3 | 3% | 0% | |
| Nevada | 40% | 16% | 25% | 9.8 | 2% | 0% | |
| Central FL | 39% | 6% | 33% | 8.1 | 5% | 0% | |
| Middle Tenn | 39% | 24% | 15% | 11.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Oklahoma | 36% | 6% | 30% | 6.9 | 8% | 1% | |
| Stanford | 36% | 5% | 32% | 8.1 | 5% | 0% | |
| Fresno St | 36% | 14% | 22% | 9.9 | 2% | 0% | |
| Harvard | 36% | 25% | 11% | 11.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| TX-Arlington | 35% | 23% | 12% | 11.2 | 1% | 0% | |
| St Johns | 34% | 5% | 29% | 7.5 | 6% | 1% | |
| Iowa State | 33% | 6% | 27% | 6.6 | 9% | 1% | |
| Wake Forest | 31% | 2% | 29% | 8.1 | 4% | 0% | |
| Albany | 31% | 28% | 3% | 12.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Kansas St | 29% | 5% | 24% | 6.6 | 7% | 1% | |
| Florida St | 29% | 3% | 27% | 7.2 | 6% | 1% | |
| Yale | 29% | 21% | 8% | 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| Oklahoma St | 28% | 5% | 22% | 6.5 | 7% | 1% | |
| Auburn | 28% | 3% | 25% | 7.8 | 4% | 0% | |
| Houston | 28% | 4% | 24% | 8.6 | 2% | 0% | |
| Dayton | 28% | 8% | 20% | 9.9 | 1% | 0% | |
| Marquette | 27% | 4% | 23% | 7.5 | 5% | 1% | |
| S Carolina | 27% | 3% | 24% | 8 | 4% | 0% | |
| Georgia | 26% | 3% | 23% | 7.8 | 4% | 0% | |
| Utah | 26% | 4% | 22% | 8.2 | 3% | 0% | |
| Mercer | 26% | 22% | 4% | 12.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| N Iowa | 25% | 15% | 10% | 11.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Elon | 25% | 15% | 10% | 11.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Murray St | 25% | 22% | 3% | 13.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Tennessee | 24% | 3% | 21% | 8 | 3% | 0% | |
| NC-Wilmgton | 24% | 14% | 10% | 11.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Illinois St | 24% | 14% | 10% | 11.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Furman | 24% | 19% | 6% | 12.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Monmouth | 23% | 18% | 5% | 13.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| Missouri St | 22% | 13% | 8% | 11.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| GA Southern | 22% | 14% | 8% | 12.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Grand Canyon | 22% | 21% | 1% | 13.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| U Penn | 22% | 21% | 2% | 13.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Temple | 21% | 2% | 18% | 9.8 | 1% | 0% | |
| St Josephs | 21% | 7% | 14% | 10.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Old Dominion | 21% | 16% | 5% | 12.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| N Kentucky | 21% | 17% | 4% | 13.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Davidson | 20% | 6% | 14% | 10.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Texas Tech | 19% | 4% | 16% | 7 | 4% | 1% | |
| San Fransco | 19% | 5% | 14% | 10.4 | 1% | 0% | |
| Wyoming | 19% | 8% | 12% | 10.8 | 1% | 0% | |
| Towson | 19% | 12% | 7% | 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| Georgia St | 19% | 12% | 6% | 12.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Samford | 19% | 17% | 3% | 12.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| CS Bakersfld | 19% | 16% | 3% | 13.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Denver | 19% | 17% | 2% | 13.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Winthrop | 19% | 19% | 1% | 14.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| Weber State | 19% | 18% | 1% | 14.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Southern | 19% | 19% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Tulsa | 18% | 3% | 15% | 9.2 | 1% | 0% | |
| IPFW | 18% | 16% | 2% | 13.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| South Dakota | 18% | 17% | 1% | 13.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Utah Val St | 18% | 16% | 2% | 13.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| UCSB | 18% | 18% | 0% | 14.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| St Fran (PA) | 18% | 18% | 0% | 15.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Ohio State | 17% | 2% | 15% | 7.8 | 3% | 0% | |
| Penn State | 17% | 2% | 15% | 8 | 2% | 0% | |
| Connecticut | 17% | 2% | 15% | 9.5 | 1% | 0% | |
| Toledo | 17% | 12% | 5% | 12.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| N Dakota St | 17% | 15% | 2% | 13.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Hampton | 17% | 17% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Miss State | 16% | 2% | 14% | 7.8 | 2% | 0% | |
| W Michigan | 16% | 12% | 4% | 12.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Ball State | 16% | 12% | 4% | 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| Montana St | 16% | 15% | 1% | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Hawaii | 16% | 16% | 0% | 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| GA Tech | 15% | 1% | 13% | 7.6 | 2% | 0% | |
| VA Tech | 15% | 1% | 14% | 8.1 | 2% | 0% | |
| Syracuse | 15% | 1% | 14% | 9.1 | 1% | 0% | |
| E Michigan | 15% | 11% | 4% | 12.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Buffalo | 15% | 11% | 4% | 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| Idaho | 15% | 15% | 1% | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| F Dickinson | 15% | 15% | 0% | 15.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Lamar | 14% | 14% | 0% | 15.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Alcorn State | 14% | 14% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| E Washingtn | 13% | 12% | 0% | 14.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Norfolk St | 13% | 13% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Richmond | 12% | 4% | 9% | 11.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Northeastrn | 12% | 7% | 4% | 12.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Hofstra | 12% | 8% | 4% | 12.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Valparaiso | 12% | 8% | 4% | 12.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Kent State | 12% | 9% | 3% | 13.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Gard-Webb | 12% | 12% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| TX A&M-CC | 12% | 12% | 0% | 15.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| LIU-Brooklyn | 12% | 12% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| UNLV | 11% | 9% | 2% | 13.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Akron | 11% | 9% | 2% | 13.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Liberty | 11% | 11% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| SE Louisiana | 11% | 11% | 0% | 15.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Jackson St | 11% | 11% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Illinois | 10% | 1% | 9% | 9.1 | 1% | 0% | |
| S Illinois | 10% | 7% | 3% | 12.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Arkansas St | 10% | 8% | 3% | 13.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| Troy | 10% | 7% | 2% | 13.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Lehigh | 10% | 8% | 2% | 13.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| NC-Grnsboro | 10% | 8% | 1% | 13.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Wright State | 10% | 8% | 1% | 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| Jksnville St | 10% | 9% | 1% | 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| Sam Hous St | 10% | 10% | 0% | 15.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| New Mexico | 9% | 4% | 5% | 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| Bradley | 9% | 7% | 2% | 13.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| TX El Paso | 9% | 7% | 2% | 13.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Wofford | 9% | 8% | 1% | 13.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| St Peters | 9% | 8% | 1% | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Siena | 9% | 9% | 0% | 15.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Bryant | 9% | 9% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Wagner | 9% | 9% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Morgan St | 9% | 9% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| La Salle | 8% | 3% | 5% | 11.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Wm & Mary | 8% | 5% | 3% | 13.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| UAB | 8% | 6% | 1% | 13.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Cleveland St | 8% | 7% | 1% | 14.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Abilene Christian | 8% | 8% | 0% | 15.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Lg Beach St | 8% | 8% | 0% | 15.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| UC Davis | 8% | 8% | 0% | 15.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Sacred Hrt | 8% | 8% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Prairie View | 8% | 8% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| California | 7% | 1% | 6% | 9.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Colorado | 7% | 1% | 7% | 10.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Evansville | 7% | 5% | 2% | 13.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Navy | 7% | 7% | 1% | 13.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| IL-Chicago | 7% | 7% | 1% | 14.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Stony Brook | 7% | 6% | 0% | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Niagara | 7% | 6% | 1% | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Manhattan | 7% | 6% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Neb Omaha | 7% | 6% | 0% | 14.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| N Colorado | 7% | 7% | 0% | 15.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Radford | 7% | 7% | 0% | 15.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Georgetown | 6% | 2% | 4% | 8.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Boston Col | 6% | 0% | 6% | 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| U Mass | 6% | 3% | 3% | 11.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Colorado St | 6% | 3% | 3% | 12.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| LA Monroe | 6% | 4% | 2% | 13.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Colgate | 6% | 5% | 1% | 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| E Kentucky | 6% | 6% | 1% | 14.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| TN State | 6% | 5% | 1% | 14.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| WI-Milwkee | 6% | 6% | 1% | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Detroit | 6% | 5% | 1% | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| IUPUI | 6% | 5% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Canisius | 6% | 6% | 0% | 14.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| North Dakota | 6% | 6% | 0% | 15.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| CS Fullerton | 6% | 6% | 0% | 15.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Rob Morris | 6% | 6% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| NC A&T | 6% | 6% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Maryland ES | 6% | 6% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| LSU | 5% | 0% | 5% | 9.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Oregon St | 5% | 1% | 5% | 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| Arizona St | 5% | 1% | 5% | 10.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Utah State | 5% | 2% | 3% | 12.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Boston U | 5% | 5% | 1% | 14.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| TN Tech | 5% | 4% | 1% | 14.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| N Hampshire | 5% | 5% | 0% | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Maryland BC | 5% | 5% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Fairfield | 5% | 5% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| SC Upstate | 5% | 5% | 0% | 15.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Campbell | 5% | 5% | 0% | 15.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Portland St | 5% | 5% | 0% | 15.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Incarnate Word | 5% | 5% | 0% | 15.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Cal Poly | 5% | 5% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| UC Riverside | 5% | 5% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Alabama St | 5% | 5% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Nebraska | 4% | 0% | 3% | 9.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Santa Clara | 4% | 1% | 3% | 11.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Geo Wshgtn | 4% | 2% | 2% | 11.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Saint Louis | 4% | 1% | 2% | 11.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Pacific | 4% | 1% | 3% | 12.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| Indiana St | 4% | 3% | 1% | 13.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Marshall | 4% | 3% | 1% | 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| Columbia | 4% | 4% | 0% | 14.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| Coastal Car | 4% | 3% | 1% | 14.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| W Kentucky | 4% | 3% | 1% | 14.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Army | 4% | 4% | 0% | 14.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| WI-Grn Bay | 4% | 4% | 0% | 14.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| TN Martin | 4% | 4% | 0% | 14.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Rider | 4% | 4% | 0% | 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| High Point | 4% | 4% | 0% | 15.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| New Orleans | 4% | 4% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| S Car State | 4% | 4% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Geo Mason | 3% | 1% | 2% | 11.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| San Diego | 3% | 1% | 2% | 12.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Drake | 3% | 3% | 1% | 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| James Mad | 3% | 2% | 1% | 14.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Drexel | 3% | 3% | 0% | 14.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| Texas State | 3% | 2% | 0% | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Cornell | 3% | 2% | 0% | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Central Mich | 3% | 3% | 1% | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| American | 3% | 3% | 0% | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Loyola-MD | 3% | 3% | 0% | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| Chattanooga | 3% | 3% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Charlotte | 3% | 3% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Youngs St | 3% | 3% | 0% | 15.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| Oral Roberts | 3% | 3% | 0% | 15.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Seattle | 3% | 3% | 0% | 15.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Florida A&M | 3% | 3% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Ark Pine Bl | 3% | 3% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| DePaul | 2% | 0% | 2% | 9.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Washington | 2% | 0% | 2% | 10.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Memphis | 2% | 0% | 2% | 10.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Air Force | 2% | 1% | 1% | 13.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Delaware | 2% | 1% | 0% | 14.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Bowling Grn | 2% | 2% | 0% | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Dartmouth | 2% | 1% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| App State | 2% | 2% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| N Illinois | 2% | 2% | 0% | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Rice | 2% | 1% | 0% | 14.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Holy Cross | 2% | 1% | 0% | 14.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Morehead St | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| E Illinois | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Austin Peay | 2% | 1% | 0% | 15.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Charl South | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| NJIT | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Kennesaw St | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| TX-Pan Am | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Jacksonville | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| NW State | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Houston Bap | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| St Fran (NY) | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Cal St Nrdge | 2% | 2% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Delaware St | 2% | 2% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Beth-Cook | 2% | 2% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Howard | 2% | 2% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| NC State | 1% | 0% | 1% | 9.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Rutgers | 1% | 0% | 1% | 9.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| Pittsburgh | 1% | 0% | 1% | 10.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| E Carolina | 1% | 0% | 1% | 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| Fordham | 1% | 1% | 0% | 12.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Duquesne | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Brown | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| AR Lit Rock | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| S Alabama | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| Fla Atlantic | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| Miami (OH) | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| S Mississippi | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| TX-San Ant | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| W Carolina | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Massachusetts Lowell | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Binghamton | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| UMKC | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| W Illinois | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Marist | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| N Florida | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| N Arizona | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Sac State | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Quinnipiac | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| McNeese St | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Nicholls St | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Idaho State | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Stetson | 1% | 1% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Central Ark | 1% | 1% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Coppin State | 1% | 1% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Miss Val St | 1% | 1% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Central Conn | 1% | 1% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Savannah St | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0% | |
| SE Missouri | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0% | |
| Grambling St | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0% | |
| Alab A&M | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0% | |
| S Florida | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| Tulane | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.1 | 0% | 0% | |
| Wash State | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Loyola Mymt | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Portland | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.2 | 0% | 0% | |
| San Jose St | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Pepperdine | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.3 | 0% | 0% | |
| Lafayette | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.4 | 0% | 0% | |
| North Texas | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.6 | 0% | 0% | |
| SIU Edward | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| VA Military | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | |
| Hartford | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Citadel | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.8 | 0% | 0% | |
| Florida Intl | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| S Utah | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.9 | 0% | 0% | |
| Presbyterian | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Longwood | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Maine | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| Chicago St | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% |
Finally, here’s a quick reminder. If you haven’t checked out the rest of our projections, please do! They include:
College Basketball Projected Conference Standings. Projected conference records and full regular season records, plus win odds for both the conference regular season title and the postseason tournament.Bracketology Projections. Odds to make the NCAA tournament, plus projected seeding, and lots more details. (One of our faves is the Bracketology By Conference page.)NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions. Round by round advancement odds, including probability of a team making the Sweet 16, making the Final Four, or winning the championship.
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