Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Picks, Odds & Props for July 5 Matchup
by Matt McEwan in MLB Baseball
Updated Jul 11, 2024 · 11:23 AM PDT
Jun 24, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY SportsThe Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees open a three-game series on Friday, July 5Boston took two of three in the first series between the two rivals a little less than a month agoSee the Red Sox vs Yankees odds, trends, head-to-head comparison & my best bet for the game below
Fresh off being swept by the Cincinnati Reds, the New York Yankees prepare to open up a three-game series at home against the Boston Red Sox tonight. New York will send Nester Cortes to the mound, while Boston trots out Tanner Houck. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm ET on Friday, July 5.
This is the second series of the season between the two bitter rivals. Boston took two of three in the first series at Fenway Park back in mid-June. New York will look to get some revenge at Yankee Stadium this time around.
I have broken down the betting odds for the Red Sox vs Yankees series opener, provided my prediction and picks, and laid out some of the most important stats needed to make an educated wager on tonight’s game.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction & Picks
There are two bets I am locking in for this matchup:
Nester Cortes over 5.5 Ks (-155 at DraftKings)
The above was the best line for Cortes Ks at the time of writing, but I waited for FanDuel and other sportsbooks to open the line last night. FanDuel had even shorter odds, so I went back to DraftKings and locked this in for 1.2 units, then also bet another 0.4 units on 7+ Ks (+132) at bet365.
Red Sox Team Total over 3.5 (-120 at bet365)
The Yankees enter this game having lost 14 of their last 19 games, with two of those five wins coming against the lowly Blue Jays in a four-game series they split. The reason for their slump has not been the bats. Their pitching has been horrendous.
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Over the last 15 days, New York’s ERA is a league-worst 6.85! The next worst over that stretch is 5.81, more than a full run less per game. Their team ERA comes down to 5.56 when viewing the last 30 days, but that’s still second-worst in the MLB.
When these two teams met in their first series of the season a little less than a month ago, Boston scored 1, 8, and 9 runs in those three games. Though Nester Cortes did not pitch in that series, it’s not like he’s been shutting teams down lately either. Cortes gave up three earned runs to the Jays in his last outing, only making it 4.1 innings. He has now given up at least three earned runs in 10 of his 18 starts this season.
Boston ranks 12th in runs scored this season and has put up at least four runs in each of their last four games. I like them to continue rolling against a Yankees pitching staff that is in shambles right now.
While I do expect Cortes to give up some runs, I do love him to strikeout the batters he does manage to get out. The Red Sox have struckout 818 times this season, which is third-most in the Majors. But if you isolate Ks versus LHP, no team has struckout more than the Red Sox.
Cortes has recorded at least six Ks in nine of 18 starts this season, but he has also faced a fair amount of non-K teams – Toronto, Baltimore (x2), Kansas City, LA Dodgers, Cleveland, Arizona, Houston etc. Though I don’t foresee Cortes running up the Ks too much, I do like him to get at least six.
Red Sox vs Yankees Same-Game Parlay
If you’re looking to lock in a same-game parlay for the Red Sox vs Yankees matchup, be sure to check out our daily odds boosts page before doing so. Most sportsbooks offer daily SGP bonuses, whether it’s a profit boost or some insurance / no-sweat wager.
I would take the two wagers from above, water them down a little and then add Rob Refsnyder to get a hit, assuming he is in the lineup. This is what my SGP looks like:
Boston Red Sox over 2.5 runsNester Cortes 5+ KsRob Refsnyder 1+ hits – if Refsnyder does not make it into the lineup, I’d fall back on a Judge hit
Starting Pitcher Comparison: Tanner Houck vs Nester Cortes
HouckVSCortes
| 7-6 | Record | 4-7 |
| 2.67 | ERA | 3.51 |
| 17 | Starts | 18 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| 8.82 | K/9 | 8.4 |
| 0.42 | HR/9 | 1.2 |
Strictly looking to the head-to-head pitching matchup, Tanner Houck has the advantage over Nester Cortes. Houck’s 2.67 ERA is sixth-best in the Majors (among qualified pitchers), and he has been great at keeping the ball in the field of play, which will be vital against a Yankees team who is second in the league in home runs.
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Cortes’ 3.51 ERA isn’t bad either, though. I also wouldn’t read too much into his 4-7 record. Cortes has been a little unlucky, especially throughout June, either seeing his relief collapse or not getting much run support.
Yankees Hitters vs Houck
| Yankees Hitter | ABs vs Houck | AVG vs Houck | HRs vs Houck | BB vs Houck | Ks vs Houck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oswaldo Cabrera (S) | 0 | .000 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jahmai Jones (R) | 1 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Judge (R) | 9 | .333 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| DJ LeMahieu (R) | 11 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Juan Soto (L) | 2 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gleyber Torres (R) | 19 | .263 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jose Trevino (R) | 3 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Volpe (R) | 4 | .000 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Austin Wells (L) | 3 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The two Yankees bats with the most experience against Houck (RHP) are LeMahieu and Torres. The former has been awful against the Red Sox SP, not recording a single hit in 11 at-bats. Torres has been decent against Houck, sporting a .263 batting average, which is a fair bit better than his .221 average this season, and is the only Yankee who has taken him deep.
Aaron Judge and Jose Trevino have had the most success against Houck, though neither has a very big sample size, both batting .333 in nine and three ABs, respectively.
New York has fared much better against righties this season, batting .254 as opposed to .234 against lefties.
Red Sox Hitters vs Cortes
| Red Sox Hitter | ABs vs Cortes | AVG vs Cortes | HRs vs Cortes | BB vs Cortes | Ks vs Cortes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (L) | 11 | .273 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Jarren Duran (L) | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reese McGuire (L) | 4 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler O’Neill (R) | 2 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rob Refsnyder (R) | 10 | .600 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Smith (L) | 3 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Connor Wong (R) | 4 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Rafael Devers and Rob Refsnyder have the most ABs against Yankees’ LHP Nester Cortes, but it’s Refsnyder who has had the most success, going .600 in ten ABs. Two of Refsnyder’s hits have been doubles as well. He’s far from a regular in the Red Sox lineup, but I would be surprised if they didn’t have him playing LF tonight.
Devers has averaged .273 in 11 ABs against Cortes, which is a little under his average for the season (.288), but has hit the ball hard when he makes contact. Boston’s 3B has taken Cortes over the fence on two of his three hits, and the third was a double. Devers has struckout five times in those 11 ABs, though.
Boston’s batting average is slightly better against lefties than righties, as they’re hitting .257 in 804 ABs vs LHP this season. One stat that I am loving for my bet above is the Red Sox strikeout in 32.2% of their ABs vs LHP.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Team | Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | +1.5 (-185) | O 8 (-115) | +120 |
| New York Yankees | -1.5 (+154) | U 8 (-105) | -142 |
The New York Yankees are listed as the favorites in the series opener against the Red Sox with -142 odds to win (moneyline). Based off those odds, the Yankees have a 58.7% chance to win the game. A $20 bet on New York would stand to profit $14.08 and return $34.08.
The Red Sox are listed as the underdog with +120 odds on the moneyline. That same $20 bet on Boston would potentially win $24 and return $44.
The total in the game is set at 8, moving down from opening at 8.5.
The odds above are from DraftKings as of July 4 at 9:45pm ET.
Red Sox & Yankees Trends
Here are some quick trends to know about the Red Sox entering this game:
Boston is 47-39 this season27-16 on the road39-47 against the run line this season26-14 against the run line as an underdogThe over is 42-38-6 in Red Sox gamesThe over is 23-18-2 in BOS road games
And a few quick trends to know about the Yankees:
New York is 54-35 this season24-17 at home48-41 against the run line36-37 against the run line when favoredThe over is 47-39-3 in Yankees gamesThe over is 22-19 in NY home games
