Seth’s Week 8 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

Seth’s Week 8 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

October 30, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

Week 7 didn’t go so well. Okay, it was a disaster.

My popular Cardinals stack of Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald didn’t do much on Monday night, and I was already playing from behind with poor showings from Willie Snead, Jason Witten, and the Redskins defense.

My FanDuel results so far this season:

Week	# Contests Entered	Total Entry Fees	Total Prize Winnings	Net Gain/Loss for Week	Finals Tickets Won	Cumulative Profit	Cumulative Finals Tickets Won
1	5	$32	$327	$295	4	$295	4
2	9	$82	$0	($82)	0	$213	4
3	5	$45	$29	($16)	1	$197	5
4	5	$45	$0	($45)	0	$152	5
5	4	$40	$0	($40)	0	$112	5
6	4	$35	$70	$35	0	$147	5
7	4	$35	$0	($35)	0	$112	5

Ranking the Elite

This week Pro-Football-Reference.com released their new fantasy football stats section. It’s an exciting time for fantasy stats nerds, and to celebrate, I used their stats to compile the top 10 FanDuel points seasons since 2006 at the skill positions.

Granted, FanDuel launched in 2009, but it’s still good to look at this year’s best players in full context.

Here’s the top 10 at each position by FanDuel points per game:

Quarterback

Rk	Player	Year	Tm	Age	G	FDPt	FDpt/Game
1	Aaron Rodgers	2011	GNB	28	15	403.4	26.9
2	Tom Brady	2015	NWE	38	7	187.4	26.8
3	Michael Vick	2010	PHI	30	12	320.3	26.7
4	Peyton Manning	2013	DEN	37	16	420.0	26.3
5	Tom Brady	2007	NWE	30	16	406.0	25.4
6	Drew Brees	2011	NOR	32	16	403.6	25.2
7	Cam Newton	2011	CAR	22	16	386.8	24.2
8	Tom Brady	2011	NWE	34	16	382.3	23.9
9	Andy Dalton	2015	CIN	28	6	139.7	23.3
10	Drew Brees	2013	NOR	34	16	369.7	23.1

The fact two quarterbacks from this season make the list says quite a bit about quarterback scoring. That’s especially the case when we consider the record-breaking seasons on the list, including Tom Brady 2007, Drew Brees 2011, and Peyton Manning 2013. Brady is on pace to break the single-season passing yardage record following Thursday’s game, and he’s also on an impressive 46/2 TD/INT pace. And who would have thought Andy Dalton would be on a list like this one entering the season?

Running Backs

Rk	Player	Year	Tm	Age	G	FDPt	FDpt/Game
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	SDG	27	16	455.1	28.4
2	Devonta Freeman	2015	ATL	23	7	170.1	24.3
3	Steven Jackson	2006	STL	23	16	374.4	23.4
4	Chris Johnson	2009	TEN	24	16	373.9	23.4
5	Jamaal Charles	2013	KAN	27	15	343.0	22.9
6	Arian Foster	2010	HOU	24	16	363.0	22.7
7	Larry Johnson	2006	KAN	27	16	354.4	22.2
8	Brian Westbrook	2007	PHI	28	15	327.4	21.8
9	Arian Foster	2011	HOU	25	13	282.6	21.7
10	Ray Rice	2011	BAL	24	16	338.8	21.2

The golden age of the fantasy running backs has long since past, but Devonta Freeman is setting back the clock thus far. The surprise sleeper still stands well behind LT’s 28.4 points per game from 2006, and he also stands six points ahead of this year’s second best back, Chris Ivory. He’s scored 10 touchdowns, but failed to find the end zone last week.

Wide Receivers

Rk	Player	Year	Tm	Age	G	FDPt	FDpt/Game
1	Randy Moss	2007	NWE	30	16	336.3	21.0
2	Odell Beckham Jr.	2014	NYG	22	12	249.5	20.8
3	Antonio Brown	2014	PIT	26	16	322.4	20.2
4	DeAndre Hopkins	2015	HOU	23	7	138.6	19.8
5	Julio Jones	2015	ATL	26	7	138.0	19.7
6	Calvin Johnson	2011	DET	26	16	313.2	19.6
7	Josh Gordon	2013	CLE	22	14	270.9	19.4
8	Calvin Johnson	2013	DET	28	14	261.2	18.7
9	Anquan Boldin	2008	ARI	28	12	221.0	18.4
10	Demaryius Thomas	2014	DEN	27	16	285.4	17.8

It’s not shocking to see DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones make this list with their early performances. Hopkins has seen at least 11 targets in every game this season, and he’s on pace for a staggering 233 targets. That means he’s been targeted on more than 71% of Houston’s pass attempts. As for Jones, he’s slowed considerably after the first three games of the season. He’s failed to produce a 100 yard performance over his last four contests, and only has one receiving touchdown over that time. For what it’s worth, Julian Edelman’s 2015 season ranks 13th on the list, while Larry Fitzgerald ranks 18th.

Tight End

Rk	Player	Year	Tm	Age	G	FDPt	FDpt/Game
1	Rob Gronkowski	2015	NWE	26	7	126.6	18.1
2	Rob Gronkowski	2011	NWE	22	16	285.9	17.9
3	Jimmy Graham	2013	NOR	27	16	260.5	16.3
4	Jimmy Graham	2011	NOR	25	16	246.5	15.4
5	Rob Gronkowski	2014	NWE	25	15	225.4	15.0
6	Tyler Eifert	2015	CIN	25	6	84.2	14.0
7	Gary Barnidge	2015	CLE	30	7	97.9	14.0
8	Dallas Clark	2009	IND	30	16	221.7	13.9
9	Tony Gonzalez	2008	KAN	32	16	213.8	13.4
10	Vernon Davis	2009	SFO	25	16	213.5	13.3

This is Gronk’s third season on the list, and his best so far. New England’s tight end is on pace for 91 catches, 1,477 yards, and 16 touchdowns. The receptions and yardage would edge out what he produced in 2011, but he scored 17 times in that breakout season. Currently, Tyler Eifert and Gary Barnidge also rank in the top six, with Eifert on pace for 16 touchdowns and Barnidge on pace for 1,175 receiving yards and 11 scores. Drafted in 2008, the 30-year-old Barnidge had a total of 603 receiving yards and three scores over his entire career coming into this season. The early strength at tight end has given fantasy owners plenty of weekly options.

My Week 8 Strategy

I apparently didn’t go safe enough last week, and failed to predict the Rams’ 25 point performance. Not splurging on defense really did me in, so I’m hoping not to make that mistake again this week.

(OK, “splurging” may be a bit of an exaggeration, given the Rams only cost $100 more than the defense I ended up using. But I did set myself a hard spending cap, rather than being open to using any defense.)

To review my normal strategy:

Start with Vegas over/under linesEvaluate each team’s recent fantasy points allowed vs. each positionEvaluate salaries and contest format

The highest Vegas-implied point totals this week include:

Team	Vegas-Implied Points
Atlanta	28.0
Carolina	27.0
Baltimore	26.8
New Orleans	26.2
Arizona	25.8

The lowest Vegas-implied point totals include:

Team	Vegas-Implied Points
San Francisco	15.8
Dallas	18.0
Tennessee	19.8
Indianapolis	20.0
Cleveland	20.2

The Result: My Lineup for Week 8

Here’s my lineup for Week 8:

Ryan Fitzpatrick remains at an affordable salary, as the Jets take on the league’s seventh worst fantasy defense vs. QBs. Fitz Magic has been a reliable fantasy quarterback this season, scoring at least 14 points in every game, and his two best games have come over the last two weeks.I’m going slightly cheaper at running back, but still two solid plays. Chris Johnson is coming off his second best game of the year, and faces Cleveland’s horrible rush defense. The Browns are second worst in running back fantasy points allowed, and last in rushing yards allowed by a large margin. In addition, Arizona ranks fifth this week in Vegas-implied points. Justin Forsett faces the only fantasy defense that’s been worse vs. the rush than Cleveland. San Diego has allowed the second most rushing yards in the NFL, and have also allowed 10 scores to running backs.Brandon Marshall is coming off his worst game of the year, but before facing New England, he was one of football’s most consistent players this season. Marshall scored at least 15 fantasy points in his first five games, and he could be in for another big game with Eric Decker questionable to play. Mike Evans should be a very popular pick this week after his  best game of the season, and with Vincent Jackson doubtful for Sunday. Atlanta has done well vs. wideouts this season, allowing the third fewest points, but that shouldn’t stop Evans from hogging targets. Steve Smith remains a value for the amount of attention he’s seen in Baltimore’s offense, averaging 11 targets per game.Antonio Gates is highly questionable again with a sprained MCL, making Ladarius Green a value play. Green saw a season-high nine targets last week, and has scored in three of his four starts this season. The Ravens have fared very well vs. tight ends this season, tied for second best, but the potential for the price is too good to pass up.The Rams defense is a no-brainer if you’re looking to spend. The 49ers are coming off a 3-point performance in their last game (vs. Seattle), have the lowest Vegas-implied points total, and will be without starting running back Carlos Hyde.With my leftover salary, I felt Brandon McManus was the best I could do at kicker. He’s second in fantasy points per game, and has scored double-digit fantasy points in three consecutive games.

That’s my lineup for Week 8. Don’t forget to compete against me in this week’s TRFC contest!

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